Growth driven by consumer demand, environmental necessity and government incentives.
The 8 million electric vehicles on the road internationally in 2019 are expected to increase to 50 million by 2025 and almost 140 million vehicles by 2030. 1
EV sales are expected to reach almost 14 million vehicles in 2025 and 25 million vehicles in 2030. 1
India’s government announced last year that only electric two and three-wheel vehicles would be allowed by 20252 and their charging infrastructure is being expanded to support this.
As of 2018 India has about 1.5 million battery-powered, three-wheeled rickshaws on its roads. Some 11,000 new ones hit the streets each month, creating a US $1.5 billion market.3
1. International Energy Agency, Global EV Outlook 2020
2. CNN Business, March 25, 2020
3. Bloomberg. Retrieved 28 October 2018
Demand will likely outpace current EV production levels for at least the next 10 years.
Between 2019 and 2027, the size of the global electric vehicle market is expected to increase almost five-fold to reach an estimated global market size of some $803 billion USD by 2027. This translates to a notable compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 20 percent between 2019 and 2027. 1
EV sales are expected to reach almost 14 million vehicles in 2025 and 25 million vehicles in 2030. 2
For comparison, the combined annual production of GM, Ford, Toyota and VW is 30.8 million vehicles.
1 Statista, March 2021
2. CNN Business, March 25, 2020
Countries around the world have set aggressive targets for phasing out ICE’s (internal combustion engines) and incentivizing EV’s.
25% EV’s by 2025
20-30% BEV’s by 2030
33% BEV/FCEV’s by 2030
90% EV’s by 2040
1 Million EV’s by 2030
660,000 BEV’s by 2023
7-10 million BEV/FCEV’s by 2030
500,000 EV’s by 2030
4 million BEV’s by 2030
100% Zero Emission Vehicle sales by 2030
50-70% EV by 2030
825,000 ZEV’s by 2030
3.3 Million ZEV’s by 2030
Global EV Outlook, Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI) of the International Energy Agency, June 2020
HEV: hybrid electric vehicle
PHEV: plug-in hybrid electric vehicle
BEV: battery electric vehicle
ZEV: Zero Emmission Vehicle
FCEV: fuel cell electric vehicle
Government incentives will continue to drive sales around the world.
As of 2019, the U.S. government had 645,000 vehicles that were driven 4.5 billion miles and consumed 375 million gallons of fuel. About 35% of those vehicles were operated by the U.S. Postal Service, according to the General Services Administration (GSA).
The Biden administration has announced plans to replace the government’s current fleet of cars and trucks with electric vehicles assembled in the U.S.1
The Federal government in the US offers tax credits of 10% up to $2,500 for 3-wheeled electric vehicles, and individual states like Oregon and California offer subsidies up to $5,000.2
The Indian government has budgeted $1.5B US in subsidies towards helping buyers acquire 500,000 3-wheeled e-vehicles.3
In Norway, the country with the largest per-capita penetration of EV’s, there are many government incentives in place including; zero purchase/import taxes; exemption from 25% VAT; no annual road tax; no charges on toll roads or ferries and free municipal parking, among many others. 4
1. The current standards require a vehicle’s parts be at least 50% from the U.S.
2. IRS, 30D(g) subsidies
3. The Economic Times of India, Feb 11, 2021
4. Norwegian Electric Car Association website, 5/28/2021
In short, many governments are actively encouraging buyers to look at EV’s as an alternative to ICE vehicles.